Caucus Day

Greetings and Happy Caucus Day!

Today is the Iowa Caucus and the beginning of the end of the presidential nomination process for Republicans and Democrats. Of course, the candidates have been campaigning for this moment today for what seems like forever (except Rudy Giuliani, who is hoping to be able to survive being beaten up like a rented mule in the first few weeks of the primary season before big states like Florida, California, and New York).

On the Democratic side, Hillary has recently shown vulnerability and given way to the likes of John Edwards and Barack Obama. A win for Clinton would virtually wrap up the nomination for her, while a win for either Edwards or Obama throws uncertainty into the the race on a scale that would match their GOP counterparts.
And how about the Party of Lincoln? Republicans have long been reported dissatisfied with their candidate, but someone has to win. For the record, Tavern Banter has endorsed former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney for president. Mike Huckabee and Romney have been trading leads in the polls in Iowa, while Romney and John McCain have been duking it out in New Hampshire.

The importance of Iowa, however justified one feels, should not be underestimated. This is the first contest in the country that means something and campaign season has been dragging on forever. The media is licking their chops to anoint a winner, especially an underdog or surprise candidate (hence why John McCain, who like Giuliani has been relatively absent from Iowa, could make waves by merely coming in third). A win in Iowa is something tangible and can be latched onto by candidate and media alike. Sure New Hampshire, Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida (the other "early states" outside of Super Tuesday on February 5th, when a large majority have their primaries) have their polling and likely winners at the moment. But a win in Iowa reshapes everything. Same goes for New Hampshire and South Carolina to a lesser extent.

As for today's caucus, expect more to be settled on the Democratic side than the Republican. There are only three likely Democratic contenders: Clinton, Edwards, and Obama. On the Republican ticket, the race is more jumbled: Romney, McCain, Huckabee, Giuliani, and Fred Thompson. And the future of the free world rests on the shoulders of the folks of Iowa to be able to decide which one of these politicians best suits our country.

No pressure.